EIA预测2020-2021年原油价格走势_顺水财经_顺水网

原标题：EIA预测2020-2021年原油价格走势

中国石化新闻网讯 据美国能源情报署1月21日报道，EIA在《短期能源展望》中预测，2020年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶65美元，2021年为每桶68美元，2020年西得克萨斯中质原油现货价格平均为每桶59美元，2021年为每桶62美元。

EIA预计，2020年前几个月原油价格仍将上涨，反映出近期地缘政治事件对原油的价格溢价。不过，这一价格溢价将在2020年上半年下降，市场基本因素将推动2020年下半年和2021年原油价格预测。

尽管全球液体燃料库存每天增加13万桶（b/d），但在此期间原油价格仍有所上涨。

随着风险溢价的降低，EIA预计布伦特原油价格将在2020年初下降至5月份的平均62美元/桶。EIA没有预测到供应中断，任何实际供应中断都会给价格带来上涨压力。

贾丽 编译自 美国能源情报署

原文如下：

EIA forecasts crude oil prices will fall in the first half of 2020, then rise through 2021

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2020 and $68/b in 2021 and that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price will average $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021.

EIA expects that crude oil prices will remain elevated in the first few months of 2020, reflecting a price premium on crude oil from recent geopolitical events. However, this price premium will diminish in the first half of 2020, and market fundamentals will drive the crude oil price forecast in the second half of 2020 and in 2021.

Crude oil prices increased during this period despite global liquid fuels inventories growing by 130,000 barrels per day (b/d).

As the risk premium decreases, EIA assumes that Brent prices will decline in early 2020 to an average of $62/b in May. EIA does not forecast supply disruptions, and any physical supply disruptions would put upward pressure on prices.

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