金价为啥大跌？|金价_顺水财经_顺水网

译者  王为

文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明

Why are Gold Silver Crashing？

by Jeff Clark from GoldSilver.com 

Gold is down over 3% today as we write． Silver is down over 6%． The gold/silver ratio has soared to 95， its highest level since March 1991．

2月28日就在我写这篇文章的时候，金价下跌了3%还多，银价的跌幅也超过了6%，金银价格比飙升至95，为1991年以来最高。

Why is this happening？ Aren’t gold and silver crisis hedges？

为啥会这样？黄金和白银不是避险资产吗？

One of the biggest reasons has to do directly with the stock market． It’s the same reason gold and silver crashed in October 2008．

其中一个很大的原因与股票市场有关，金银的价格在2008年10月份出现崩盘也是出于同样的原因。

Because of the rout in stocks， there is a sudden need for liquidity． Cash is desperately needed to meet margin calls and offset losses elsewhere． To a large extent， gold is being sold to meet those liquidity needs．

由于股市大跌，对流动性的需求突然大增，市场各处都急需现金用于补缴保证金和弥补其他投资的亏损，因此很大程度上是市场主动抛售黄金以满足这些流动性的需求。

A number of other analysts are pointing this out as well．

其他一些分析师也是这么认为的。

“While gold has rallied amid both risk-on and risk-off episodes， gold could suffer from further profit-taking as gold is utilized to meet margin calls， as a liquid asset， amid sharp declines across equity markets．” Standard Chartered

“虽然金价在市场风险情绪升温和去风险的时期均会出现上涨，但金价会因涨幅巨大而引发获利回吐，因黄金因其高流动性的特点而被卖掉以满足因股价大跌导致的增补保证金的需求。”——标准渣打银行

“While bullion has rallied amid both risk-on and risk-off episodes， it could suffer from further profit-taking as it’s used to meet the calls amid the sharp declines in stocks．” Precious metals analyst Suki Cooper

“金价的上涨情况会出现在市场风险情绪升温和去风险的时期，但获利回吐会导致金价下跌，因机构卖掉黄金以补缴保证金。”——Suki铜业的贵金属分析师

“There is an old saying in trading markets that when times get really dire and anxiety is high， you don’t sell what you want， you sell what you can． Such is likely part of the reason safe-haven gold has seen downside price pressure this week．” Precious metals analyst Jim Wyckoff．

“市场上有一句老话，在情况最危急、情绪最焦虑的时候，想卖的卖不掉，要卖能卖掉的东西。可能正是出于这个原因，黄金这个避险资产在本周遭遇到了价格下跌压力。”——贵金属分析师Jim Wyckoff

In other words， it’s not because there’s something wrong with gold． It’s because of needs elsewhere， and gold is available to help． It’s also the last day of the month， so some traders are locking in gains or getting losses off their books．

也就是说，金价下跌与黄金本身并无关系，而是因为其他方面存在流动性需求，因此只好把黄金卖掉救急。另外，28日是2月份的最后一个交易日，因此一些交易员为了锁定金价上涨带来的盈利或用于弥补账户中其他投资的亏损也需要卖掉所持仓的黄金。

I know this doesn’t necessarily help us feel any better， but it does explain why the metals are selling off．

我知道这个说法不会让人感受好一点，但确实能够解释黄金大跌的原因。

Is it almost over？ We obviously can’t answer that with any certainty， but based on a similar event in 2008， the selloff in gold and silver is likely to stop when the urgent need for liquidity stops， which could occur before stocks are done falling．

金价的大跌结束了吗？显然我们无法很肯定地给与回答，但2008年发生的类似一幕告诉我们，如果市场对流动性不再有紧急需求，那么对金银的抛售有可能会停止，而这种情况有可能会在股市完全停止下跌之前就发生。

For example， in 2008， gold stopped falling by the end of October， while the stocks continued to decline for the next five months． But gold re-exerted itself as a safe haven almost immediately： from November 3 until the following February 20， gold rose 35.6%． By the following November， one year later， gold had risen 45.6%．

比如金价是在2008年的10月份停止下跌的，而股市继续跌了5个月，但几乎就在同期，黄金再次展现出作为避险资产的作用。金价在2008年11月3日至2009年2月20日之间上涨了35.6%；到2009年11月份，累计升幅达到45.6%。

Gold rebounded in this manner because of its safe haven status． once the urgent need to find liquidity began to ease off， investors rushed back into gold． importantly， the gold price never revisited the October 2008 lows． Still to this day．

金价之所以会出现这样的反弹是因为其具有避险资产的地位。一旦紧急流动性需求开始消失，投资者就会再次疯抢黄金。更重要的是，直到今天金价也从没回到过2008年10月份创下的低位。

So while we can’t tell you when things will reverse， we are confident that gold will resume its safe haven status．

因此虽然不清楚事态何时会好转，但我们相信黄金终将重拾其作为避险资产的地位。

For those that want more bullion， based on history this is likely to be a short window to snag prices at these levels． This is just my opinion． But I am personally looking to capitalize on it， especially silver given the extremely stretched ratio．

对于那些希望多买些黄金的人来说，根据历史经验当前有可能是低价抄底的短暂窗口期。这只是我的看法，但从个人角度出发，我很希望抓住这一难得的机会，尤其是白银的价格，因金银的价格比已达如此极端的水平。

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