关于形态分析

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to trading Gartley
and Butterfly Reversals
 
 

This overview covers a very basic, but powerful reversal trading pattern. There are two versions of the pattern.
 The primary pattern is called a Gartley.
 The second pattern is a variation of the Gartley and is called a Butterfly.
 The Gartley pattern is named after H. M. Gartley who wrote a book in 1935 called “Profits in the Stock Market”. Pages 200-250 of his book display a library of patterns that cover all the patterns in the market ever discussed.
You may have heard the phrase “Gartley 222” when referring to this pattern because the pattern is found on page 222 of H. M. Gartley’s book.

The second pattern is called a “Butterfly”, which is a variation of the Gartley.
 How it was
named takes an introduction and brief story about the man who named it.
 His name is Larry Pesavento.
 Larry was my introduction to these patterns.
 I first met him at a commodities seminar I attended in Chicago in 1997.
 Larry Pesavento began his two hour talk by blurting
out “Ninety percent of you in this room are losers”.
 Needless to say he had captured every person’s attention immediately.
 He went on saying the national statistics showed that 90%
of retail commodity traders lose money.
 He then said he was going to show us a pattern that
he trades and has taught
 other traders to trade that works on all stocks, all commodities and
on all time frames.
 He pointed to a chart on an overhead that had no price or time, just bars. Then he said “I’ll give anyone $100 who can tell me what this is a chart of”.
 One trader
in the front of the room returned the shock value back to Larry by saying “It’s a 5 minute chart of Intel”.
 Larry’s eyebrows shot to the top of his head in shock.
 He smiled, reached into his pocket and peeled a $100 bill from his money clip and handed it to the trader.
 It
 didn’t go exactly as Larry had planned, but he didn’t miss a beat and he immediately started teaching how he uses the Gartley pattern with fibonacci ratios to accurately trade reversals.
In hindsight, Larry played the odds that nobody in the room would recognize what the chart was of, but he was obviously prepared to take his losses ($100) should the crowd prove him wrong.
 It was a lesson within a lesson.
 You play the odds when they are on your side,
 but you always know your exit strategy.

I bought Larry’s book “Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition” and within days I began seeing the patterns form everywhere on the charts.
 I spent several hours a day searching out and trading the patterns.
 I believe that no trader’s arsenal is complete without a thorough knowledge of how to identify and trade Gartley and Butterfly reversals.
 They appear on five minute e-mini charts and you can find them on quarterly charts of stocks.

It is easier to learn these patterns by first viewing charts that have already reached their
price targets and then reversed.
 I can tell you by experience that it is not easy to place the trades when you first start trading these patterns because you will place orders at prices that
are seemingly nowhere near support or resistence areas.
 Now that I’ve traded these patterns countless times, it is like riding a bike.
 I find the pattern, do my analysis and place the trade.
I found some interesting volume relationships on my own I’ve never seen addressed anywhere else.
 That one little volume nugget I discovered has kept my winners at 70%.
I teach that volume nugget on the Gartley-Butterfly Training CD-Rom and I use it in my analysis of charts when I provide stock picks for my subscribers at longorshort.com.

Before I dive into the charts I want to say this.
 What you are about to see and learn is NOT
a complete course for learning how to trade Gartley and Butterfly Reversals.
 My CD-Rom covers the soup to nuts version.
 This is a basic overview of the patterns looking at some of the fibonacci ratios used within the patterns that help pin point high probability reversal
points.
 The power of these patterns lies in the fact that they work in both bull and bear markets.
 Equally important is that they work on all time frames.
 Now lets get started by covering some of the fundamentals before showing how they are applied to actual charts.


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